SAG Awards nominations: What the biggest snubs and surprises mean for the Oscar race

The Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations were announced this morning, and since the actors branch is the biggest group within the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, those who were nominated should feel hopeful that voters will use them as a guide for the Oscars. Interestingly, the official balloting by the Academy begins today.

SAG voters recognized the casts of the three most recent best picture winners: "Oppenheimer", "Everything Everywhere All at Once", and "CODA". Of the four actors who won individual awards in 2024, three also took home Oscars, with Emma Stone ("Poor Things" actor) stopping a potential sweep by beating out SAG winner Lily Gladstone ("Killers of the Flower Moon").

Who's currently in the lead and who's struggling after Wednesday's nominations? And what does it all mean for the Oscars, which will announce its nominees on January 17? Here's a breakdown.

UP: Demi Moore, "The Substance"

As a contender for a body horror film, a nomination now seems almost guaranteed, and many believe she might even take home the award. Her spirited campaign this season has been met with great enthusiasm, and that feeling has been reciprocated by voters. Even months after the movie's release, they have consistently turned out to pack her Q&A sessions.

UP: Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis, "The Last Showgirl"

Everyone loves a comeback story, especially when it's about a person reinventing themselves, like what Pamela Anderson does in her role as an aging dancer in Gia Coppola's poignant film "The Last Showgirl." And Jamie Lee Curtis is a fan favorite, especially if you remember the love she received when she won the Oscar two years ago for "Everything Everywhere All at Once". Although the movie didn't get widespread attention, the screenings it did have were packed. And these women know how to work a crowd.

DOWN: Nicole Kidman, "Babygirl"

Fully deserved disappointment was inevitable, particularly since several of the performances, including Kidman's fearless (and often quite funny) turn as a woman undergoing a journey of sexual self-discovery in "Babygirl," have an edge that would appeal to the same voter. What can you do? Offer regrets and raise a glass of milk in her honor.

DOWN: Angelina Jolie, "Maria"

Jolie really needed this moment. In addition to being nominated for a Golden Globe and receiving a Gotham Awards tribute, it's been a relatively quiet year for her, making this a chance to make a strong impression. Critics haven't been particularly kind to "Maria," primarily due to the film's one-dimensional exploration of legendary opera singer Maria Callas, despite Jolie's performance being unaffected by their criticism. She'll now rely on Oscar voters traditionally favoring biopic films to carry her to a nomination.

DOWN: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, "Hard Truths"

"People. Can't stand them."

UP: Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked”

We had anticipated that Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would be included, but the SAG Awards voters went one step further by also nominating Bailey for his portrayal as the charming prince who develops a conscience. Will the Academy be just as enthusiastic about this extremely popular movie? We will soon get our answer.

DOWN: Denzel Washington, "Gladiator II"

Were SAG Awards voters not entertained by the ceremony?

EVEN: "The Brutalist"

Just a few days after winning awards for best drama film, the director and lead actor Adrien Brody celebrated his wins, while also starring in Brady Corbet's thought-provoking movie about an immigrant architect struggling to reach the American Dream. Although Adrien Brody received his own special recognition, the film didn't receive a nomination for the entire ensemble cast. Although Adrien Brody was individually recognized, Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce weren't nominated for their supporting roles. The film didn't receive a nomination because "The Brutalist" is not a traditional ensemble film. And I want to clarify that by saying this, I certainly appreciate Joe Alwyn's ability to convincingly portray an entitled brat. If you're a fan, there's no need to worry - there have been recent best picture winners that didn't receive a SAG ensemble nomination, including "The Shape of Water", "Nomadland", and "Green Book".

UP: "A Complete Unknown"

He has only one vote: Dylan's.

DOWN: Margaret Qualley, "The Female Man"

Moore's comeback drew attention to the headlines, but it seems that people are just starting to appreciate her co-star's strong performance as her younger sister in "The Substance." Qualley effectively portrayed Sue's initial carefree nature, as well as her growing, tough, and self-destructive narcissism. Qualley and Moore have been impressive together at events and it would be fitting if they got to take their collaboration all the way to the Oscars.

DOWN: Selena Gomez, “Emilia Pérez"

Gomez got criticized for her accent in the movie, but that seemed overly picky in a film where absurdity was a main theme. Gomez knocked it out of the park with her big song number and played her role as the wife of a drug cartel boss with a surprising level of depth. The uneven "Emilia Pérez" had its flaws, but for me, Gomez was not one of them.

DOWN: “Sing Sing”

Not enough people saw "Sing Sing," so it's not surprising that it also struggled to attract voters to watch its inspiring drama about a prison theater program. This has actually led to a big problem for the movie, as it missed out on receiving more awards.

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