Ukraine's recent successes in Kursk Oblast may spell doom for Putin – British colonel

Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commanding officer of the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment and NATO's Rapid Reaction CBRN Battalion, believes Ukraine humiliated Putin at the worst possible moment, just weeks before Donald Trump's inauguration.

Read also: Ukrainian forces gain ground amid intensified battles in Kursk Oblast - ISW

De Bretton-Gordon believes that 2025 will bring more hope for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy than for Putin.

“[Putin] may have been a brilliant spy but is being exposed as a dreadful military commander,” he argues.

“He has forgotten, or more likely is unaware of, the principles of warfare, most especially the one that says reinforce success not failure.”

The colonel ridiculed Putin's "special military operation," which has lasted over three years, and speculated that Zelenskyy will remain in power next year, while Putin, at best, might hope for a villa in North Korea or breaking rocks in the Urals. He noted that Russian history offers no "rosy" prospects for dictators who face defeat.

De Bretton-Gordon also pointed out that the stakes in the war are rising on both sides. Putin has suffered humiliation in Syria and in Moscow, where his key ally, General Igor Kirillov, was assassinated “on his front doorstep.”

“In his annual Christmas question and answer session on National and International TV, he fibbed through his teeth, trying to appear swan-like above the water, but everyone knows he’s peddling frantically below it,” the retired commander notes.

Putin had promised to return Russia's "sacred land" in Kursk Oblast by Christmas.

“But this is looking like another psychological blow to his dictatorship as a new Ukraine offensive pushes eastwards,” he writes.

“Kursk may well be the beginning of the end for Putin in 2025, as it was for Hitler in 1943.”

The colonel noted that Ukrainian Defense Forces have dealt a serious blow to Russian troops in Kursk Oblast over the past few days, possibly forcing the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade to retreat from the Kursk Salient.

“The Russian front in Kursk is looking very shaky and Ukraine, rather than just hold on, could make gains,” De Bretton-Gordon writes.

“In desperation, Putin is sending one of his most trusted generals to the region in an attempt to rescue the situation. Russia seems to have plenty of expendable generals, but not the military hardware to thwart this latest Ukrainian advance.”

This is very encouraging, according to him. Putin may well be in "survival mode" after events in Syria, the assassination of General Kirillov, and Ukraine's decision to cut off the last gas route to Europe through its territory.

“Allied to this, he knows Trump is unlikely to do him any favours come Jan. 20, with the ‘mood’ music coming out of the Trump Camp, that Putin is going to have to accept a deal which probably favours Ukraine or be prepared for Trump to go full on behind Zelenskyy,” said the colonel.

Read also: Ukraine hits back in Russia’s Kursk Oblast effectively utilizing combined arms tactics

According to de Bretton-Gordon, this should be another psychological boost for Ukraine and seems to be another psychological blow to Putin.

“Seeing him floundering around in his ‘chat’ with the nation recently, you can judge he is under real pressure, and with the knowledge that the tyrant Assad has just crashed from his perch and is cowering under Putin’s coat tails, must be a very disarming experience,” the retired military official adds.

“Putin knows failed Russian dictators rarely collect their ‘pensions’ and seems to be charting a way out. His final gambit to save Kursk is putting him into ‘check’ if not ‘checkmate’?”

The colonel emphasized that NATO countries must continue to apply pressure and give Putin no chance to escape. If the West maintains this resolve, the prospects for Ukraine will become more hopeful, he argues.

Ukrainian Armed Forces launch new offensive in Kursk Oblast

It was reported on Jan. 5 that Ukrainian forces had launched a new offensive in certain areas of Kursk Oblast.

Later, the fact of the offensive was indirectly confirmed by the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, and directly confirmed by the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko.

Read also: Military expert explains the strategy behind Ukraine's bold move in Kursk

As confirmed by analysts of the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian troops have indeed resumed offensive operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast in at least three areas and have made tactical advances.

Military observer David Axe, analyzing the situation in Kursk Oblast, reported on Jan. 5 that Russian and Ukrainian troops in the region launched separate but simultaneous attacks in different directions, and perhaps one offensive was designed to disrupt the other.

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Section: Russian war

Author: Богуслав Романенко